Semi-finals confirmed with victory over West Indies; What is the equation of Pakistan?

The picture is almost clear in the Super-8 stage of T20 World Cup 2026. Two teams have been decided for the semi-finals, but the last two teams are yet to be decided. However, the excitement is at its peak for the remaining two semi-final tickets. South Africa has qualified for the semi-finals from Group-1 of Super-8 and England from Group-2. Now all eyes are on the India vs West Indies match and England vs New Zealand match, which will decide the final picture of the semi-finals.

First see the points table of both the groups of Super-8

Super 8, Group 1

Super 8, Group 2

India-West Indies knockout match

Under the captaincy of Suryakumar Yadav, India has kept its hopes alive by defeating Zimbabwe by 72 runs, but the road is not easy yet. In the last match of Super-8, India will face West Indies in Kolkata. The importance of this match is clear, the team that wins will directly reach the semi-finals. Now net run rate has no meaning in Group-1. Defeat for both the teams would mean elimination from the tournament. This match will be no less than a final. Now the only option before India is victory. It will be very important for the team to maintain balance in both the batting and bowling departments.

New Zealand’s strong comeback, Sri Lanka out

At the same time, the equations in the second group have become even more interesting. New Zealand not only knocked Sri Lanka out of the tournament by defeating them by 61 runs in Colombo but also took their net run rate to +3.050. Chasing the target of 169 runs, Sri Lanka was reduced to 107/8 and missed reaching the semi-finals for the fifth consecutive time. Since winning the title in 2014, the Sri Lankan team has not been able to make it to the last four. This big victory of New Zealand has put them in a strong position in the race for the semi-finals.

England vs New Zealand: Fate will decide

Now the real decision will be taken by the match between England and New Zealand. If New Zealand beats England, they will directly advance to the semi-finals with five points. Not only will New Zealand reach the semi-finals, but will also remain at the top position in the points table in Group-2. England will qualify by finishing second. In that situation, Pakistan’s last match against Sri Lanka will remain a formality.

What is the whole equation for Pakistan?

However, if England wins, New Zealand will be stuck at three points and the door will open for Pakistan. Pakistan currently has only one point. He will have to defeat Sri Lanka in his last match. After the victory, Pakistan will reach three points. However, mere victory will not be enough for Pakistan, it is sure to be a game of net run rate. According to current estimates, if England beats New Zealand by 50 runs, Pakistan will have to win by around 20 runs (assuming the first innings score is around 170). If Pakistan chases the target, they will have to achieve the target within about 17.5 overs to overtake New Zealand’s net run rate. Even a slow win could take him out.

mathematics of net run rate

New Zealand’s net run rate is currently +3.050, which is a very strong position. Pakistan will not only need to win, but will need a big win. This is why the challenge for Pakistan has doubled, it itself has to perform brilliantly and also has to expect help from England. However, if the New Zealand team wins, then all the ifs and buts will end. Then New Zealand-England teams will reach the semi-finals and Pakistan team will be out of the World Cup.

Pakistan’s qualification equation
(Assuming England beats New Zealand)

Case-1: If England wins while chasing the target

Case-2: If England wins by batting first

Between whom can the semi-finals take place?

If India beats West Indies, it will reach the semi-finals by finishing second in Group 1. In this situation, India will compete with the top ranked team of Group-2. If the New Zealand team beats England, then India will face New Zealand in the semi-finals. At the same time, South Africa will face England. If India beats West Indies, on the other hand, if England team beats New Zealand, then India will face England in the semi-finals. Then it remains to be seen what is the result of the match between Pakistan and Sri Lanka and whether Pakistan is able to qualify or not. If Pakistan does not qualify then South Africa and New Zealand will face each other in the second semi-final. If Pakistan qualifies then South Africa will face Pakistan in the semi-finals.

Pakistan’s qualification equation
(Assuming England beats New Zealand)

Case-1: If England wins while chasing the target

Case-2: If England wins by batting first

Not only the semi-final teams, the venues will also be decided.

The next two-three Super-8 matches will decide not only the teams of the semi-finals but also the venue. ICC had set some conditions. ICC has fixed one semi-final match at Wankhede and the venue of the other semi-final has not been announced yet. If Pakistan qualifies for the semi-finals then it will play its semi-final match in Colombo. Then if Pakistan team reaches the final then the final will also be held in Colombo. However, if Pakistan is out, then one semi-final will be played in Wankhede and the other semi-final will be played in Kolkata. Then the final will be held in Ahmedabad.

Tournament heading towards exciting end

England’s consecutive wins have made the group picture clear, but Sri Lanka’s exit has made the decision of the last semi-final ticket very exciting. While the match between India and West Indies will directly decide the path to the semi-finals, the England vs New Zealand match will write the fate of Pakistan. Now it remains to be seen whether India will capitalize on its opportunity and whether Pakistan will be able to perform miracles.